Patrick Santry is correct with his headline; UMPCs are already taking over the minds of people interested in mobility. There is also a sentence in the article that needs special attention:
Was it a Tablet PC, or was it a laptop?
First, the term laptop and devices bother me. There is nothing worse than a confused consumer. Yet, tech-types love to spit out phrases that are misused and misunderstood leading to consumer confusion. For example, the laptop was a form-factor abandoned years ago. Hopefully no intelligent person will buy a laptop. However, the term floated back into the arena a few years ago when some idiot did not know about the history of portables, ultra-portables, laptops, notebooks, and ultra-notebooks. People followed suit and reviewers and enthusiasts did not correct anyone. Even manufacturers use the laptop term now, creating even more confusion. Again, this is probably people following other people's lead rather than researching the history of computers.
Worse, Bill Gates' speech writers also need a lesson in technology lingo. A computer is not a device. Yet, Mr. Gates continually referenced devices - over 23 times. [Sorry, I do not know the exact count because I fell asleep three times during the keynote.] Anyway, using the term devices is confusing people. Please stop using the terms laptops and devices. Stick to the normal language.
In terms of UMPCs and Tablet PCs, they are computer systems. They are a complete package. A consumer may purchase the hardware and software and be productive - or at least they have the opportunity of learning how to use the equipment so that they are productive. For example, A Tablet PC is a notebook with enhancements to the operating system and hardware. The Tablet PC is the next generation. Consumers need to understand that the notebook is old technology. Manufacturers of the Tablet PCs are on the front-end of the direction the industry is moving; the reverse is not true. For some reason though, loud-mouths are constantly bashing the Tablet PC and do not understand the Tablet PC is a notebook with extra features.
Let's look at the Tablet PC in this manner. If we looked at the history of computers, we would see a sequential (and sometimes parallel) development of the mobile computer. First we had the luggable systems which could "easily" be moved from desk to desk. The laptop came next - with the promise of the computer being lighter but people would be burned by the heat and the poor people's laps would suffer under the weight of the laptop. Next came the design of the notebook and ultra-notebooks, thinner and lighter cousins to the laptop. Finally, the industry added ink recognition, speech recognition, digitizers, etc to a notebook using Windows XP Pro (not the home version) - and wahlaa - the Tablet PC was born.
The marketing message was goofed up, though. There were repeated statements about usability, handwriting recognition, etc. Sadly, consumers did not want to take the time to understand the Tablet PC is a notebook with Windows XP Pro plus features - and kept comparing the Tablet PC to a home version based PC (or lower cost notebook).
This brings us to the UMPC - with more marketing message messes. This time around Intel and Microsoft defined the UMPC differently. Now, Bill Gates has backed away from using the Ultra Mobile PC term and we ended up seeing "Origami Experience" on the banner in the Microsoft booth.
Yuck.
There are two directions for the computer industry: (a) give consumers the needed time to digest all of this techno-babble or (b) move forward with newer and more exciting products. I vote for the industry to move forward. UMPCs and Tablet PCs are the forward movement. Laptops and notebooks are falling to the rear.
In the end, we can babble and prognosticate all we want but the consumers will settle on the computer systems which fit best for their needs - and this includes the enthusiasts who want the fastest machine, the road warriors who need mobility, and the home-based consumers who are looking for the lowest prices. Mixing up the target audience always leads to confusion and poor sales.
Are the home-based consumers the target audience for the UMPC? No. The road warriors are the market. They need speed, hard-drive space, and small, light hardware.
Can anyone purchase the UMPC systems? Absolutely. Enthusiasts are usually the first to purchase (and possibly the first to return a system). The road warriors are usually beholden to the company - which means UMPCs need to be in the hands of all of the large corporations trying to offer the UMPCs. All Microsoft, Intel, VIA, and AMD employees should have UMPCs and Tablet PCs. This is a simple directive from the company leaders.
Once the UMPCs and Tablet PCs are seen on the streets and in the planes, others will follow suit; thereby leading to a faster adoption rate and more people joining the UMPC and Tablet PC community. Yes. Patrick is right and 2007 is the year of the UMPC.
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