Now that 2006 is coming to a close, it's time to look into the crystal ball and blog predictions for next year.
Over at Read/Write, Richard MacManus and others have put forth their predictions for how they see how web trends for 2007 will play out. Don Dodge, has a top-five list too.
I really like Don Dodge's list:
* Growth of web-based apps
* Lots of online "TV"
* More mobile phone targeted applications and services
* Blogs, Wikis, and so on will keep proliferating
* Targeted search
I'm not sure if it's fair to add to the list, but I think we're also ripe to see significant changes in online advertising. We'll see lots more video advertising, for instance. And what about better tools to generate these video ads? And what about ads that work with podcasts as well as sites as well as video streams?
On top of this, site editors need more control over their ads (to increase revenue) and advertisers need better production (with less cost). I hope that the growth in video ads will spawn better control for both ends of the advertising spectrum. If not, my fingers are crossed that some startup will fill the gap and make tons of money doing so.
I also agree quite strongly with Richard MacManus' prediction about the "consumerization of the enterprise"--something that has been going on for years from the introduction of the first PCs to the acceptance of sound in a business class PC and now to online apps. Quite a few blogs have argued that browser-based Office-style apps can't challenge the rich-client apps in the enterprise, but I think their wrong. I can see the switch over starting in small groups as a simple way to work with people outside the organization as well as inside. People will start with non-sensitive documents and workflows, but as the applications grow in capability, the trend will become strong--especially if they experience reduced costs, which I expect they will. Actually, I expect to see far more of the "switch" in 2008 than in 2007, however, the first hints of it will start permeating the news in 2007.
So what about Tablets and the web? My prediction is that we're going to see more and more "non-Tablet-PC-ink" ink apps spread across the Internet. Huh? As rich Flash-based and Javascript-based apps continue to spread across the Internet, we'll see more and more apps that support vectorized drawing. They won't use the smooth Tablet PC-style ink though. Maybe some will smooth the curves; most will support simple line drawing instead. Down the road this may change, but for 2007 I expect to see non-Tablet PC ink continue to grow online. This isn't a terrible thing. It does give, however, the Tablet community the challenge of trying to merge the Tablet PC experience with these browser-based apps. Tablet PC ink and vector shapes are going to have to merge. The downside, if there is one, is that in terms of the online world the value of the Tablet in terms of generating content will lag for a bit.


Incremental Blogger